Again a populist Budget!

From the trends of economic survey 2015-16, it is clear that this union budget is also going to be a populist one! Please do not startle yourself! Whatever I say is the outcome of the trends of economic survey! While I have confidence on my analysis, I do not have right to pronounce the idea of others as mistaken. This union budget to be introduce in Lok Sabha on February 29, 2016 is going to be a burden on the pockets of general people. I am not swirling nor I do have any intention to  do so. I am directly coming to the point. You can see from this economic survey that UPA II is blamed in this survey for the bad performance. While the government has GDP data upto 2014 only and also with the help of IMF and World Bank, the government is just trying to take credits of its newly implemented policies. I am not going to delve into this matter further as being human I could take the view mistaken which I do not want. Most of data used in this Economic Survey is of the period of previous governments and thus this government could not be tested at this juncture at least.

In the state of the economy chapter, it is said that India's consumption growth till 2001 was 5.5%, it was 6.4% from 2002 to 2007 and after that till 2014, it is 7.5%. It is also said that 72% of global growth is attributed by the final consumption from 1991 till 2013. 2007 recession has deep impact till now and except china world is seeing a nosedive in the investment arena. The economic survey is much choosy upon the subject of GDP growth. For the sake of clarity I bring the formula of GDP here;

GDP (Y) = Consumption (C) + Investment (I) + Government Expenditure (G) + Net Export (X-M)

where X is Export and M is import.

I would not like to go much on the formula rather coming back to  the discussion the Economic Survey 2015-16 (ES) envisages that the largest chunk is coming from private final consumption. It would constitute almost 60% of total GDP. If we take advance estimate then it could be Rs. 68,10,577 cr. According to the new series estimate, it was Rs. 49,45,926 cr. A whopping difference of Rs. 18,64,650 cr. Can you guess what does it say? Let us guess! This is a clear indication that some sort of social security scheme with longest lock-in period shall come into force. Schemes like Insurance whose benefit shall be reaped after say 20-30 years, a big thrust upon schemes like gold monetization schemes, savings in liquid assets which could easily utilized by the Government of India and this could be Fixed Deposits, Kisan Vikas Patra, PF and like. The ES indicates that the Government consumption has been lowered to nearest of 10% from 11%. This could cut the education grant, health grant and other such welfare schemes and the same could be given to private body of PPP model. The most disturbing part of the survey is fixed capital formation. In 2015-16 it is lowered to 29% from 34% in 2011-12. Fixed capital formation is indicator of business environment in the country. It is lowered generally during the recessionary period. Academically, I can argue that the fixed capital formation constitute the acquisition of fixed assets by business, government and household. Now this is much more complex as Railway announced three new freight corridor and thus we could expect that upto next year government is not going to start its process on new freight corridor. Infrastructure spending by the government is considered good because it saves money in the long run and reduces the Net present value of the government liabilities. But, where the capital formation has lowered, the government shall have to make endeavour to bring ideas for youths employment. We can cheer that the government is going to boost export which it has failed miserably.    

Government planned to finance central plan mostly by market borrowings and Public Sector Enterprises (PSEs). Yes, PSEs which is regularly questioned. Again  market borrowing shall be a burden upon the general public as the same could be initially funded by Foreign Institutional Investors but later the same could be turned to short term borrowing and the Insurance companies have to subscribe the same as the trend  goes. The budgeted estimate reveals that the government borrows Rs.  456405 crores from market and PSEs could contribute Rs. 317889 cr. out of total estimate of Rs. 578382 cr. made NITI Ayog. The government seems to be exerting all  its effort on mining which i personally finds a bad idea.  2015-16 Advance estimate has envisaged growth rate of Agriculture a meager 1.1%, mining 6.9%, manufacturing 9.5% and service 9.2%. First revised estimate of 2014-15 is embracing agriculture in  negative growth,  and mining whopping 10.8%. We should keep quite on manufacturing as it is only 5.5% and Service is 10.6%.

Indian GDP is primarily and mainly contributed by household sectors (45.5%) followed by private sectors (33.9%) in 2011-12. Trend suggest that while contribution of household (44.8%) and public sectors (19.4%) declined in 2014-15, private sectors prospered (35.9%) since 2011-12 till 2014-15. This budget could stimulate the private sectors with tax soaps and other loan waivers. The government could announce major amendment in tax laws for startups and other  SMEs and the farmers i.e. agriculture and fishing could be sidelined. 

John F Kennedy in his inaugural address dated January 20, 1961 said, "If a free society cannot help the many who are poor, it cannot save the few who are rich." In a nutshell, this budget seems to going to be a corporate presentation where the bottom-line of corporate should be looked after. Expenditure on Social Security Schemes could be lowered and instead of that insurance schemes could be floated under the banner of social security schemes. By doing so, this government could be a limited government instead of an activist government which is a force for public good.

Picture Courtesy

     

Voting in and out someone cannot be a sin!

2014 General Election in India was no doubt a mass movement, a mass movement since 1977, a mass movement against the last refuse of scoundrel, a mass movement against the alleged corruption on the part of the leading political party at the helm of the government, a mass movement against the deteriorating law and order of the country and last but not least a mass movement against the center which was responsible for everything: Why the chief ministers are taking steps for development and why not, why is water supplied to the colonies and why not and why people eat in abundance and why not etc. The Citizen of India voted in mass and broke all the records of voting percentages. Voted in mass for change. Voted in mass for development. Youths and/or first time voters were overwhelming to throw out the incumbent. Everyone were promised of good days, good days in the form of employment, good days in the form of good governance, good days in the form of honesty, good days in the form of punishing the main culprit and rescuing the innocents, good days in the form of conservation of natural resources, good days in the form of conserving forests and environment, good days in the form of taming the inflation, good days in the form of border security etc. etc.      

Before the election, we have seen numerous mass protests against the government. A pressure tactics was used to pressurize government to succumb before the hidden plebiscites of some unauthorized group of activists. Activists like Anna Hazare and nexus were so desperate that the Indian Sovereignty was in danger or it was about to become a slave if Lokpal which later renamed Jokepal in sarcasm by some section of society or you can say a tool to destabilize the government or you can say a pan to bake your own bread,  is not appointed. Anna Hazare's supporters were so busy in to be enthroned that they were using all the possible means and opportunities to give a bit of their mind. All the sections of media were so busy in glorifying all of the bits of the activists in such a way as if it is portrayed that a single family of mother-son was usurping the constitution. Constitution of India which has deep root of democracy. Political game later appeared to be fixed but India witnessed a transformation in politics. One single party got the majority in 30 years on a promise of good days, a promise which was construed by the demagogues that no one shall have any work to do rather the government shall feed them. 

A government was formed and people were relaxed that now India is free from all hassle. Oh! No! Government is busy in some other work, other work which is unknown, opaque and full of strides. Voters who voted in was demanding their share of good days from the government now became an easy target of some section of society and situation is that sooty began to mock black chimney. Every time these innocent voters are remembered of the days before general election 2014 and taunted for good days on a pretext that the situation was worse and hence the government is incapable of providing any  quick relief.

Yes it is the right of each single voter irrespective of the fact that (s)he voted in the incumbent government or not to ask the government to be accountable. The henchmen are lynching the soul of the voters to shrinking from incurring an obligation. The voters cultivated the land of good days, irrigated, fertilized and sowed the seeds. Now vegetable has grown, plucked from the plant, kept in cold storage and the voters are asking their share so that they could dice the fresh vegetable and make into the pot for cooking. What is your problem Mr. Watchman? Why your men are arguing that this demand of good days is illicit? Why are they taunted of their poverty? Why are they shamelessly called the king of the world? Yes, they were the king of the World where dream was decided by them, of the world where they were told to do labour and decide their own shares, for the world which was dependent upon them, for the world where litterateurs were  listened. 

Litterateurs are returning their Awards on the protests that the government is not listening them and the cultural clashes round the corner are taking place. You know it better that winning a prize for any body is a moment which cannot be explained in words. I have seen Ms. Usha Uthup crying after receiving the first Filmfare Award for the best female singer. A litterateur is alone without award. No one recognizes him/her with courage. A sense of pity for him/her is prevailing in the society. (S)He is a living corpus, a living corpus who is scared with himself/herself, a living corpus whose nib is pointless, a living corpus who shall have oxygen of literary sense after receiving the proper redressal of the issues. They are returning their award only for a favour that guilty be punished with iron hand while cultural disharmony that is prevailing in the society be stopped. They won the award for writing the stuff to encouraging social harmony, encouraging cultural harmony and above all encouraging the national integrity. How can they see disintegration, disintegration of their values, disintegration of social values? 

They raise the voice and some "Gunda" type followers shut their mouth by saying they got no right to speak as they have not voted the incumbent government in. How come these "Gunda" know? What are the spiritual forces which inspires these "Gunda" to know who have voted in and/out? As only the voter know this. Don't you think this "Gunda" type people are encouraging "Chalta Hai" i.e. casual attitude? Don't you think this "Gunda" tyype people are tarnishing the image of the strong government formed after almost three decades or at least for grammatical error two decades? Don't you think this attitude is suicidal for any government/country/democracy? O.K. You are given an opportunity till 2019 so let us not talk on the same.

You must remember, Guruji Ravindranath Tagore returned the prestigious Knighthood Award to the Crown in 1919 in the wake of Jaliavala Bagg Kand. Was he wrong? Khushvant Singh returned Padam Samman in the wake of 1984 Sikkh Carnage. He was a Sikkh and hence there could have been every possibility that he would have vested interest in returnig the Samman despite at the same time was he wrong? Certainly not. Certainly not because both of them found no other way to pierce their sense of feeling in the ear of the government at their own separate time. 

Why not to beseech you to kindly listens to those who oppose you? Why not to beseech you to  kindly act on your Rajdharma/Reign? Why not to beseech you to kindly not to denounce a wrong person for saving some cultural ethos which is falsely in danger? Why not to beseech you to kindly cry the Litterateurs heart out to feel their pain once? Why not to beseech you to kindly walk the farthest way about which is nearest way home for social harmony? Why not to beseech you to kindly do not make your voters feel guilty for giving  a chance to newcomer? Why not to beseech you to kindly understand that your voters are wise enough to vote you in? Why not to beseech you to kindly make the society peaceful and try all the possible effort to resettle our Pandit brothers/sisters in K-Velly and bring all types of peace in the state of Punjab? That is it! Jay Hind! Jay Bharat!