Understanding Constitution in Two Minutes

Our Constitution was drafted and enacted by the constituent assembly to cater the needs of all and to ensure fraternity and equality amongst us. Constitution of any country is the code for its legislative, judiciary and executives, the constitution of India is for all. It is so invincible that under Article 51(A) every citizen has to be on bound fundamental duty which is rarely seen in another country.

With 25 parts, 12 schedules and 448 articles, the Indian constitution is so unique and invincible that it distinctly defines the responsibility of legislative, judiciary and executives. Legislative has to make laws, executives has to execute and judiciary has to define and protect the execution of law and may I remind you all that responsibilities of these three cannot overlap each other. It has various characteristics which inter alia contains that it's drawn from different sources, the most lengthy written Constitution, it's a Federal Constitution with strong centre, it gives Parliamentary system of Government, and contains Unique combination of Rigidity and Flexibility, with Integrated and Independent Judiciary, Fundamental Rights, Directive Principles of state policy, Secular state, Universal Adult Franchise, Special provisions for SC’s ST’s and Minorities, and Provisions for autonomous authorities.

Following the words of  Dr. Ambedkar that if we wish to preserve the Constitution in which our greatest leaders have sought to enshrine the principle of Government of the people, for the people and by the people, let us resolve not to be tardy in the recognition of the evils that lie across our path.

Demonetization: A Financial Emergency

When (08.11.2016) i started to write this blog, the Hon'ble Mr. Prime Minister of India announced the biggest breaking of his government it ever had till date which is demonetization of all the currency in circulation having Rs. 500 and Rs. 1000 denomination. This could be said the biggest move and the Mr. Prime Minister as he asserted that this tool is to curb black money. No wonder, if the move is taken at the behest of Baba Ramdev (He could be applauded for new Adam Smith as he said to the Business Standard in January 2014 that all currencies of 500 and 1000 denomination should be demonetized). But the question arises whether the black money is held in the economy only as liquid money? What impact this move will bring in the economy which has about 18 lacs of crores of currency in circulation? Does this have any impact on liquidity in wholesale as well as retail market? Is government only thinking about black money or there is some smell of other intention of the government? Let us explore!

Yes, indeed this is the bold step taken by the Government of India to curb black money. For any government which has lost its control over the gigantic breeding of black money in the economy, demonetization of bigger currency is the best tool or you can say Brahmanstra (A weapon used in Hindu methodology for complete destruction of the target). It is a welcome step and, prima facie, I welcome this and I appreciate the Government. The government has stated that this is for black money and we should have a cursory look on the economy now.  The data given by the RBI on its website reveals that total currency in circulation as on 28.10.2016 stands at Rs. 17.77 lacs crores and not only that the latest annual report of it suggests that out of this 86% comprises of 500 and 1000 notes which could roughly be Rs. 15.28 Lacs Crores. This means that after sudden demonetization, the economy shall have only Rs. 2.49 Lacs Crores of currency in circulation. Is our infrastructure ready to deal with on 14% of its liquid currency? Certainly no as India has only 12-14% shares of corporate sector in National Income and Bhagidari (Unorganised) sector has 30% shares. Even in Manufacturing sector the Bhagidari have 40% share. The Bhagidari sector is major players in manufacturing, construction, transport, trade, hotels, restaurants and personal services such as servants, drivers, maids, home tutors, grocery shops etc.

In terms of work force, 92% of India's workforce belongs to unorganized sector and they have been mostly paid in 500 and 1000 notes in cash. Data and statistics reveals that there are only 50-55 crores bank accounts opened so far out of which some are the duplication of accounts and some are dormant. A rough estimate suggests that only 10-15 crores households operate Bank Account. Now the point of panic is who shall be the biggest looser? The answer is those workforce of Bhagidari Sector who do not have a bank account. They will exchange money and possibility is there that out of which Black money could be generated. Maids and servants who  are paid irregular income shall be the biggest victim of it. Again a question is repeated whether Black Money is held in liquid cash? Answer could be both yes and no. Yes, because some domestic black money generated out of bribe and others are kept in liquid cash and no because the government of India has no official data of total black money.

Now let us trace back the status of economy. Monthly Economic Report published in September 2016 by the Ministry of Finance, Government of India, reveals that the GDP growth has declined and moreover Non Tax Revenue which includes sale of Spectrum and other licenses fees  have also declined. The report also gives a sign of worry that all three deficits viz. Revenue, Fiscal and Primary are likely to be increased by 10.3%, 10.4% and 13.4% over the year. The growth in IIP in August 2016 was (0.7)% as compared to growth of 6.3% in August 2015. Mining production declined by 5.6% in August 2016 as compared to growth of 4.5% in August 2015. Manufacturing production contracted by 0.3%. Capital goods production declined by 22.2 per cent in August 2016 due to decline in production of items like commercial vehicle, three wheelers, grinding wheels, plastic machinery and small transformers. The biggest thrust on the economy is the number of telephone subscribers in India which is declined 1059.9 mn at the end of June 2016 to 1058.9 mn at the end of July 2016. Area where the government need to come with clarity is whopping increase in planned expenditure of 26.8% and a good gesture of pose shows that non-planned expenditure increased only by 3.6%.

In most of the economy, as it is said, the writer of this line has not verified this line himself, black money is not held in liquid cash in abundance, neither arms are smuggled in local currencies usually.  Those who are accustomed to generating black money have lots of heaven instead of hard cash. Demonetization assumes that all black incomes are held in the form of cash balances, but in fact it is small part. In 1946 and 1978, demonetization was unsuccessful as the businessmen reportedly invented a number of clandestine ways to circumvent demonetization and thus the generations witnessed black money and so could be apprehended this time too. In the contrary, the general people and farmers will be the biggest victim of this. Money supply will be contracted and thus the commodities and perishable items which are in market shall be forced to sell on lower price resulting in deflation. Not only that this will contract export also as the currency shall likely to be appreciated and that will heavily impact the economy as the fundamentals shall not have any role to play in. When the incumbent government assumed power, it was said that the money is in abroad and that will have to be brought back.

The data suggests that Net Foreign  Exchange Assets of RBI as on 28.10.2016 stands at 24.49 Lacs crores i.e. 138% of currency in circulation. If 500 and 1000 denomination notes sucked from the circulation then this Foreign Exchange Assets could surge resulting in the fact that the foreign nations could be bailed out from the public money. Another apprehension is that the government could redeem sovereign debts and clear treasury bills out of this money. Not fetching money from sale of Coal Blocks, Spectrum and Disclosure Schemes (IDS) as expected could have a serious root  of this act of demonetization. Another calculation suggests that in case of sucking  all 15 lacs crores of money from circulation, RBI shall get 60,000 Crores (approximately) in form of CRR which could be utilised, inter alia, in financing a total of Rs. 31,300 crore in the financial year 2016-17 and to service the principal and interest against the Extra Budgetary Resources of Rs. 16,300 crore by Government of India to augment infrastructure spending which The Union Cabinet approved in September 2016.

Though all the above are speculations and one thing could be added that whether the infrastructure is eligible for handling raucous, if any. The wholesale market has tumbled a lot against the logic. In India, it may be said easily that the market shall not suffer, the cash in circulation to GDP ratio stands at 13-15% where as globally it is 2.5% to 8%, but in reality it is not, and thus the wholesale market as well as retail market is likely to be badly impacted. The government shall be able to avoid situation of financial emergency, i hope. 

Again a populist Budget!

From the trends of economic survey 2015-16, it is clear that this union budget is also going to be a populist one! Please do not startle yourself! Whatever I say is the outcome of the trends of economic survey! While I have confidence on my analysis, I do not have right to pronounce the idea of others as mistaken. This union budget to be introduce in Lok Sabha on February 29, 2016 is going to be a burden on the pockets of general people. I am not swirling nor I do have any intention to  do so. I am directly coming to the point. You can see from this economic survey that UPA II is blamed in this survey for the bad performance. While the government has GDP data upto 2014 only and also with the help of IMF and World Bank, the government is just trying to take credits of its newly implemented policies. I am not going to delve into this matter further as being human I could take the view mistaken which I do not want. Most of data used in this Economic Survey is of the period of previous governments and thus this government could not be tested at this juncture at least.

In the state of the economy chapter, it is said that India's consumption growth till 2001 was 5.5%, it was 6.4% from 2002 to 2007 and after that till 2014, it is 7.5%. It is also said that 72% of global growth is attributed by the final consumption from 1991 till 2013. 2007 recession has deep impact till now and except china world is seeing a nosedive in the investment arena. The economic survey is much choosy upon the subject of GDP growth. For the sake of clarity I bring the formula of GDP here;

GDP (Y) = Consumption (C) + Investment (I) + Government Expenditure (G) + Net Export (X-M)

where X is Export and M is import.

I would not like to go much on the formula rather coming back to  the discussion the Economic Survey 2015-16 (ES) envisages that the largest chunk is coming from private final consumption. It would constitute almost 60% of total GDP. If we take advance estimate then it could be Rs. 68,10,577 cr. According to the new series estimate, it was Rs. 49,45,926 cr. A whopping difference of Rs. 18,64,650 cr. Can you guess what does it say? Let us guess! This is a clear indication that some sort of social security scheme with longest lock-in period shall come into force. Schemes like Insurance whose benefit shall be reaped after say 20-30 years, a big thrust upon schemes like gold monetization schemes, savings in liquid assets which could easily utilized by the Government of India and this could be Fixed Deposits, Kisan Vikas Patra, PF and like. The ES indicates that the Government consumption has been lowered to nearest of 10% from 11%. This could cut the education grant, health grant and other such welfare schemes and the same could be given to private body of PPP model. The most disturbing part of the survey is fixed capital formation. In 2015-16 it is lowered to 29% from 34% in 2011-12. Fixed capital formation is indicator of business environment in the country. It is lowered generally during the recessionary period. Academically, I can argue that the fixed capital formation constitute the acquisition of fixed assets by business, government and household. Now this is much more complex as Railway announced three new freight corridor and thus we could expect that upto next year government is not going to start its process on new freight corridor. Infrastructure spending by the government is considered good because it saves money in the long run and reduces the Net present value of the government liabilities. But, where the capital formation has lowered, the government shall have to make endeavour to bring ideas for youths employment. We can cheer that the government is going to boost export which it has failed miserably.    

Government planned to finance central plan mostly by market borrowings and Public Sector Enterprises (PSEs). Yes, PSEs which is regularly questioned. Again  market borrowing shall be a burden upon the general public as the same could be initially funded by Foreign Institutional Investors but later the same could be turned to short term borrowing and the Insurance companies have to subscribe the same as the trend  goes. The budgeted estimate reveals that the government borrows Rs.  456405 crores from market and PSEs could contribute Rs. 317889 cr. out of total estimate of Rs. 578382 cr. made NITI Ayog. The government seems to be exerting all  its effort on mining which i personally finds a bad idea.  2015-16 Advance estimate has envisaged growth rate of Agriculture a meager 1.1%, mining 6.9%, manufacturing 9.5% and service 9.2%. First revised estimate of 2014-15 is embracing agriculture in  negative growth,  and mining whopping 10.8%. We should keep quite on manufacturing as it is only 5.5% and Service is 10.6%.

Indian GDP is primarily and mainly contributed by household sectors (45.5%) followed by private sectors (33.9%) in 2011-12. Trend suggest that while contribution of household (44.8%) and public sectors (19.4%) declined in 2014-15, private sectors prospered (35.9%) since 2011-12 till 2014-15. This budget could stimulate the private sectors with tax soaps and other loan waivers. The government could announce major amendment in tax laws for startups and other  SMEs and the farmers i.e. agriculture and fishing could be sidelined. 

John F Kennedy in his inaugural address dated January 20, 1961 said, "If a free society cannot help the many who are poor, it cannot save the few who are rich." In a nutshell, this budget seems to going to be a corporate presentation where the bottom-line of corporate should be looked after. Expenditure on Social Security Schemes could be lowered and instead of that insurance schemes could be floated under the banner of social security schemes. By doing so, this government could be a limited government instead of an activist government which is a force for public good.

Picture Courtesy

     

The ugly truth behind a ‘heartwarming’ story of Muslims performing a Kashmiri Pandit’s last rites by Rahul Pandita

"This is not the only time when false stories like the one from Malvan have been reported from Kashmir. We read these stories every year. They are to Kashmir what the story of the Diwali mela at the school for the blind is to newspapers in Delhi. It is not that senior journalists or the civil society in Kashmir do not know the charade behind these stories. But they choose to keep silent.".... The ugly truth behind a ‘heartwarming’ story of Muslims performing a Kashmiri Pandit’s last rites

Account of Death

A user on Quora met an accident and then encounters death for nearly 52 seconds once and later went to coma... What his Grandmother did to him you can spell out by reading his lines; - 

"I have been dead for 52 seconds on the Operation Table and then again when I was in the ICU I slipped into coma. This happened in 2012 when a truck crushed me under its 12 wheels.

I still remember that as I inched closer to the huge gap that is between the first 4 wheels and the last 6 wheels of a long trailer truck, my brain was in the process of diluting the colors from the world. I could see everything was turning black and white, as my body was preparing itself to take the blow.

When I finally fell and the last 6 wheels went over my spine and legs, the pain was excruciating. At that moment I had broken my entire rib cage, my legs were crushed, but they were still attached to my body. My liver was cut in half and the half was floating inside my body. My left kidney burst not being able to handle the pressure of the truck on me, and I dislocated many many bones on my body. A part of my face near the eyes flew off to reveal the bones underneath. My circulatory system was devastated and I developed a heart blockage

So after giving anesthesia, the doctors concluded that I had 5% chance of survival and they performed an experimental surgery on me, for 8 hours, between which I supposedly died.

I know what others have told you, but at that moment when I was dead I saw my recently deceased grandmother who was patting me on my temples. Everything was in black and white. Nothing except my eyes were moving so she started patting harder and called out my name, she kept calling and calling and calling until I decided I would put my entire might to answer her. I opened my mouth, and gasped, struggling for air. My grandmother looked at me and smiled. And then I came back to the real world and subconsciously felt the cold operating table and blaring AC inside the Theatre. Maybe she had appeared before me to push back my spirit in my body so that I could live again.

A day after my operation my condition wasn't improving, on top of that I was hallucinating and had a bad cold, and was unable to breathe. It was only then doctors found out my left lung was damaged and was not working properly and both of the lungs had fluid filled within them. So they put me in an automatic breathing machine which pushes air into your lungs. It is extremely painful and makes you extremely thirsty. However I didn't last the night and slipped into a coma when nobody was looking.

It was then when I saw that my brain was playing back everything it had recorded for the 18 years I had lived in first person. However I found out I can switch to third person on my will. So I saw my own birth, my first day at school, my first fight at 3 years of age, my first song that I sung at 4 years of age, things that I normally didn't remember. I also saw myself slipping into a coma.

Everything was okay at first but then the playback in my brain went into an infinite loop when the order of events reached my accident. It was repeatedly showing me what happened in those brief 2 seconds when my body had shut itself down and everything went black. The eyes and the brain were still recording the events it seems. And it was an unending loop. It was painful and I was crying to make myself stop. I screamed out at myself (the third person me) but I wouldn't listen(the first person me). I don't know how much I screamed and how much I suffered fighting the endless battle with myself. And then I fell asleep, tired. It was a timely dream of "falling" that woke myself up (still in third person) and had enough force to stop the recording from playing.

In my dream I saw my grandmother and I were swinging in the playground when I was 4. I remember she swung so hard that it threw me off balance and I hurtled towards the ground, from a height of 5 feet. It was that falling sensation that saved me by waking me up. Again my grandmothers memories had saved me.

After those events I quickly recovered. Both my feet were to be amputated as the popliteal artery in both were snapped, but the doctors healed them. I started walking backwards on the 17th day and started walking front on the 22nd day. I was discharged from the hospital on the 36th day and started college only after 20 days after.

I don't know if I gave an appropriate answer to your question. I just shared what I had felt."

Courtesy: Quora

Speaking Tree

The day the Mahatma was killed

What happened at the then Birla house at 5, Albuquerque Road ( now 30 January Marg), on 30 January, 1948 ? After talking to two surviving eye-witnesses of the gory Gandhi murder case, Mr. Vivek Shukla has written this story for the The Tribune. It is informative and would be interesting for you. I am just sharing it, please have a look by following the link! The day the Mahatma was killed!

Don’t sell your conscience to buy an award!

Today you and I can boast of a tolerant India because this RSS was not allowed to dictate terms to the HRD Ministry and influence our education, and through it, our collective thought process. Something, which they are doing now with impunity. Last heard, they have advised the HRD ministry to not allow boys and girls to attend school together, and that school hours should be exceeded to 12 from six, so that everybody can learn Sanskrit. Phew! You, of course, would not talk about it, much less tweet about it. How can you? Who knows the just arrived Padma Bhushan may just be recalled? Just like your favourite party recalled all the honorable governors — to settle scores with the previous government — just after assuming power in 2014? By the way, that's another policy misadventure you will religiously not talk about...

http://salmannizami.blogspot.in/2016/01/dont-sellyour-conscience-to-by-award.html?spref=tw&m=1

Indian Cast System is unique and distinctly defined...

Yes the Industrial revolution and rapid transition in Information Technology shall bring the cast system in India as that of Vedic Age where everyone shall be treated equal and at par... 

The blog is written in Hindi... Upon request can be translated in English too... Just mention in the comment box available just below the post... 

शुद्र और ब्राह्मण दोनों एक शरीर के आवश्यक अंग हैं !